More than 53.4 million people expected to travel, the highest single-year increase since 2005
AAA forecasts a strong rebound in holiday travelers this Thanksgiving. The Auto Club Group predicts 53.4 million Americans will travel for the Thanksgiving holiday, up 13% from 2020. This brings travel volumes within 5% of pre-pandemic levels for the 2019 holiday.
The gap is closing even faster in Florida, as total travel figures are only 2% below pre-pandemic levels. AAA predicts nearly 2.9 million Floridians will travel for Thanksgiving, a 13% rebound from the total number of travelers during the 2020 holiday.
“It’s beginning to look more like a normal holiday travel season, compared to what we saw last year,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Now that U.S. borders are open, vaccinations are readily available, and new health and safety guidelines are in place, travel is once again high on the list for Americans who are ready to reunite with their loved ones for the holidays.”
Busier Roads and Airports
With 6.4 million more Americans traveling this Thanksgiving (321,000 more Floridians), people should prepare for the roads and airports to be noticeably more crowded than last year’s holiday. AAA predicts road travel to increase 8%. Yet the most notable improvement this year’s holiday is domestic air travel, which has almost completely recovered from its dramatic drop-off during the pandemic and is up 80% from last year.
“The re-opening of the U.S. borders to international travelers means airports will be even busier than we’ve recently seen, so travelers must plan for longer lines and extra time for TSA checks,” Haas continued. “With flight delays and cancellations becoming a problem recently, air travelers are encouraged to consider travel insurance. If your flight is cancelled, there are various policies that would help offset unexpected expenses like a hotel, transportation and food. You may also receive compensation for lost luggage, or if your flight is delayed for as little as 3 hours.”
NATIONAL Thanksgiving Holiday Travelers
Total Auto Air Other
2021 (Forecast) 53.4M 48.3M 4.2M 1M
2020 (Actual) 47.1M 44.5M 2.3M 281,000
2019 (Actual) 56M 49.9M 4.6M 1.5M
Change (2020 to 2021) +13% +8% +80% +264
Change 2019 to 2021) -5% -3% -9% -31%
FLORIDA Thanksgiving Holiday Travelers
Total Auto Air Other
2021 (Forecast) 2.85M 2.63M 191,662 32,103
2020 (Actual) 2.5M 2.4M 107,202 8,915
2019 (Actual) 2.91M 2.64M 218,215 52,409
Change (2020 to 2021) +13% +9% +79% +260%
Change 2019 to 2021) -2% -1% -13% -39%
Travel Pricing
Air—Even with air travel seeing a boost this year, AAA finds that the average lowest airfare is 27.3% less than last year coming in at $132. Tuesday and Wednesday are still the most expensive and heaviest travel days, while Monday and Thursday are generally the lightest and least expensive. Those wanting to book last minute travel will find the best fares about two weeks before Thanksgiving, but keep in mind availability may be limited.
Hotels—Mid-range hotel rates have increased about 39%, with average nightly rates ranging between $137 and $172 for AAA Approved Hotels.
Car Rentals—Daily car rental rates have increased 4% compared to last Thanksgiving at $98. Over the summer, consumers experienced high costs and limited availability of rental cars in some markets due to the semi-conductor chip shortage impacting automakers. As the number of travelers continues to grow, it’s important to reserve rental cars as early as possible.
Gas Prices—Gas prices surged in October and are likely to remain elevated through the holiday season. The average price for gasoline in Florida was $3.28 per gallon on Monday, November 8th. Thanksgiving gas prices haven’t been that high since 2013. The state average was $2.03 per gallon during last year’s holiday (November 26), and $2.44 on Thanksgiving Day in 2019 (November 28).
“Since many Floridians were unable to travel last year, it’s unlikely that higher gas prices will keep them from hitting the holiday road in 2021,” said Mark Jenkins, spokesman, AAA – The Auto Club Group. “Gas prices do not typically make the difference of whether Floridians will or will not travel. However, they could impact how far some are willing to drive, while others may need to reallocate more of their travel budget to gasoline, and spend less on meals, shopping and dining out.”
Roads Will Be Bustling
INRIX, in collaboration with AAA, predicts drivers will experience the worst congestion heading into the holiday weekend as commuters leave work early and mix with holiday travelers. Major metro areas across the U.S. could see more than double the delays versus typical drive times.
“Thanksgiving is one of the busiest holidays for road trips and this year will be no different even during the pandemic,” says Bob Pishue, Transportation Analyst, INRIX. “Drivers around major metros must be prepared for significant delays, especially Wednesday afternoon. Knowing when and where congestion will build can help drivers avoid the stress of sitting in traffic.”
Daily Worst and Best Times to Travel
Day Worst Time Best Time
Wednesday 12:00 – 8:00PM After 9:00PM
Thursday 12:00 – 3:00PM Before 11:00AM
Friday 1:00 – 4:00PM Before 11:00AM
Saturday 2:00 – 7:00PM Before 12:00PM
Sunday 1:00 – 7:00PM Before 12:00PM
AAA Tips and Resources for Navigating the Travel Landscape
This year’s forecast marks the highest single-year increase in Thanksgiving travelers since 2005, bringing travel volumes close to pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Despite gasoline costing over a dollar more per gallon than this time last year, 90% of people plan to travel by car as their preferred mode of transportation. Although the car is still the most popular choice for travelers, a greater share will opt to travel by air and other modes such as bus, train or cruise this year. Whether you plan to do so by car or plane, it’s important to know how to navigate the new travel landscape to avoid unnecessary stress and challenges on the way to your Thanksgiving destination.
Be Proactive. Book flights, car rentals, accommodations and other activities as early as possible. Prices are not going down and are still somewhat impacted by the limited capacity of flights and staffing challenges faced by many industries. Consider working with a travel advisor who can make any last-minute changes to travel plans, explore travel insurance options and help plan a trip that meets your needs and comfort level this holiday season.
Be Patient. The roads and airports will be busy so plan ahead.
- Arrive at the airport early so you’ll have plenty of time to get through longer TSA lines and other travel checkpoints. For domestic travel, AAA suggests 2 hours ahead of departure time and 3 hours for international.
- Consider booking a flight during non-peak travel periods to cut down on wait times.
- Hit the road when there’s less traffic and allow for extra time when traveling to your destination.
Be Prepared for the Road. For the 48.3 million Americans hitting the road, make sure you and your vehicle are ready for the trip ahead. AAA expects to respond to over 400,000 calls for help over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. The most common calls are for dead batteries, flat tires, and lockouts.
